Three years after Putin’s command to attack Ukraine, the urgent question remains: how do we bring the forcibly displaced back home?
The loss of human resources and the demographic crisis in Ukraine pose significant challenges for the country's future in the coming decades. Rising economic difficulties and labour shortages within the war-torn nation are compelling Ukrainian politicians to explore various approaches to encourage people to return home.
As of the end of November 2024, 5.2 million Ukrainian refugees remain abroad. While the first year was marked by significant challenges in settling legally and finding employment, the situation has since turned positive for the host countries. Ukrainians are boosting their economies with spending, actively studying, and integrating into host cultures.
But how will this affect Ukraine's economy and future development? According to projections, the total economic losses will amount to 5.14% of the pre-war GDP in an optimistic scenario and 7.75% in a pessimistic one.
"People are looking for jobs that often pay more than in their home country. Despite the higher cost of goods, many have the resources to provide everything they need," commented Daryna Myhailyshyna, the head economist of the Centre for Economic Strategy.
Positive examples of integration into host cultures, such as opening businesses, enrolling in UK universities, and gaining employment in local companies, have shifted the intentions of the displaced Ukrainians themselves. According to statistics, more individuals are willing to remain abroad. 43% of all Ukrainian refugees have gone into employment. The highest employment rate is in Italy - 66%. Overall, after three years 39% of Ukrainians are working in the same profession as before the war.
Despite these preferences, strong intercultural ties within local communities remain relatively low. The vast majority do not form friendships with locals. Instead, Ukrainians tend to either unite in small, self-formed communities or join pre-existing clusters.
Iryna Shelest lives with her husband and son in a rural part of Sweden. After nearly three years abroad, the family has built connections with Poles and individuals from various nationalities. “Swedes are naturally reserved,” Iryna explains. “They’ll say ‘Hello’ if they see you on the street, but receiving an invitation to their home is quite uncommon.”
Despite the family’s desire to stay, the country is already grappling with challenges from previous waves of migration. “It’s true; the Swedish government is deliberating on how to handle us Ukrainians,” she explains. “We may cause fewer issues, but these broader problems impact us directly. Sadly, our chances of staying here are small.”
The war has shifted people’s perspectives on living abroad. Before 2022, many who had sworn they would never leave Ukraine or build a future elsewhere now express a willingness to pursue their goals in Europe.
“I successfully passed the language test, and my German is now at a B2 level,” says Alina Ovcharenko, who resides near Frankfurt am Main. “I plan to study here, which may take another three to four years. After that, I’ll decide. For now, I’m staying here.”
Alina was born and raised in the small village of Druzhkivka, which is now under Russian occupation.
The return of Ukrainians to their homeland has become the top priority for the newly established Ministry of National Unity. Reformed from the former Ministry of Reintegration and now led by Oleksiy Chernyshov, the government body has yet to present a clear plan or incentives for war victims living abroad. However, the key factors influencing their return remain unchanged: security, economic stability, and the development of infrastructure.
For 53% of Ukrainians, the war's end will be the decisive reason to return, closely followed by the prospect of finding stable employment.
“For many, the idea of ‘returning’ sounds like a forced move after years spent abroad. However, the Ministry of National Unity is focused on engaging Ukrainians in social and economic ties with Ukraine,” commented Kyrylo Kryvolap, an advisor to the Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine and Minister of National Unity. “We are working to activate Unity Hubs and strengthen the network. Such hubs already exist in Latvia, the United States, and Copenhagen, where Ukrainians can go to feel at home.”
The term ‘returning’ carries a deeper meaning than simply bringing citizens back to Ukraine. According to Kryvolap, it also encompasses preserving the Ukrainian language, culture, and education. While benefits have decreased in some countries, support for Ukrainians abroad continues to be provided.
Possible complications in post-war Ukraine spark fear among migrants about losing the ability to return to Europe. The policies developed by the Ministry of National Unity of Ukraine should prioritise close cooperation with EU directives concerning migrants. In the long run, the return of Ukrainians to their homeland will contribute far more to the country’s recovery than prolonged post-war funding.
The initial steps must capture attention, acknowledging the stress and cultural adaptation many migrants have already endured. Would they be willing to relive that experience?
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